'Kessler Syndrome' Could Leave Earth Without Internet, TV, And Phones

Millions of people have watched the gripping sci-fi thriller "Gravity," featuring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, where a mission to repair the Hubble Space Telescope takes a catastrophic turn. The characters find themselves stranded in space after a chain reaction of destructive events unfolds.

What makes this storyline so captivating is that, while dramatized for Hollywood, it’s rooted in a very real scientific concept. The events portrayed in the film, involving a space debris field wreaking havoc, are inspired by the potential dangers lurking in our increasingly crowded orbital zones.

In the movie, the characters face mounting urgency as Mission Control in Houston warns them to hurry up. A destroyed spy satellite has created a debris field, setting off a disastrous sequence of events that threatens everything in its path.

The consequences are devastating, with the debris obliterating communication satellites and smashing critical structures like the Hubble Telescope and later, the International Space Station (ISS).

This brings us to the concept of the Kessler Syndrome, a scenario that many scientists warn could become a frightening reality. As space exploration accelerates through projects like Elon Musk’s SpaceX, the risks of such cascading collisions only grow more significant.

What is the Kessler syndrome?

For over half a century, humanity has been venturing into space, driven by a relentless curiosity to explore the unknown. However, this journey has not been without its challenges, and one of the most significant issues lies in the ever-increasing congestion of Earth’s orbit.

Back in 1978, NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais put forward a theoretical scenario that highlights the risks of overcrowding in space. They warned that as humanity launches more satellites and spacecraft, the likelihood of collisions increases dramatically.

Their theory suggested that if space becomes too crowded with active satellites and debris, it could trigger a chain reaction where each collision generates more debris, further escalating the problem.

"Spent rockets, satellites and other space trash have accumulated in orbit increasing the likelihood of collision with other debris," NASA explains.

"Unfortunately, collisions create more debris creating a runaway chain reaction of collisions and more debris known as the Kessler Syndrome after the man who first proposed the issue, Donald Kessler."

The Kessler syndrome brought to life in Gravity Warner Bros.

Why scientists are worried the Kessler syndrome will be proved true

Some scientists are increasingly convinced that the Kessler Syndrome is not just a theoretical possibility but an inevitable event waiting to happen.

John L. Crassidis, a space debris expert and professor at the University at Buffalo, shared his concern: "The Kessler syndrome is going to come true. If the probability of a collision is so great that we can't put a satellite in space, then we're in trouble."

Currently, there are over 10,000 satellites orbiting the Earth. Beyond that, an estimated 100 trillion pieces of old satellite fragments and debris continue to circle our planet, with many eventually falling back into Earth’s atmosphere and burning up over time.

Kessler’s research showed that once debris in a particular orbital region reaches a critical density—what he termed 'critical mass'—collisions will begin occurring on their own, even if no additional objects are launched.

"Once collisional cascading begins, the risk to satellites and spacecraft increases until the orbit is no longer usable," NASA says.

Kessler initially estimated that this tipping point could be reached within 30 to 40 years. Now, some experts believe that low-Earth orbit, at altitudes between 560 and 620 miles (900 to 1,000 kilometers), has already reached critical mass. Incidents like the 2009 collision between a decommissioned Russian satellite and a U.S. satellite provide troubling evidence of this trend.

In 2021, another alarming event occurred when a Russian missile test destroyed one of its own satellites.

This created a new debris field, forcing astronauts aboard the ISS to carry out emergency safety procedures.

The dangers of the Kessler syndrome mean our satellites could be taken out by space junk Getty Stock Image

Why the Kessler syndrome could end life as we know it on Earth

If a cascade of collisions begins in Earth’s orbit, it could have catastrophic consequences for modern society.

Vital satellites could be wiped out, leading to widespread internet and Wi-Fi outages. This disruption would extend to essential communication systems, leaving phones unusable without satellites to handle call signals.

Such a scenario could also bring television broadcasts to a halt and disable GPS navigation, causing chaos for industries and individuals alike.

On top of that, weather satellites, which are crucial for monitoring conditions that impact various sectors, could be lost. This would significantly hinder our ability to predict and respond to adverse weather events.

"Weather satellites play an important role in a variety of industries, including agriculture, fisheries, and transportation, by predicting and mitigating the effects of adverse weather conditions," say Amrith Mariappan and John L. Crassidis in their 2023 paper titled 'Kessler's Syndrome: A Challenge to Humanity'.

The authors further elaborate: "Remote sensing satellites, in turn, make significant contributions to resource exploration and monitoring of phenomena such as floods, droughts, soil moisture, wildfires, vegetation health, forest degradation, road infrastructure surveillance, etc. Remote sensing satellites are used in the military to capture high-resolution images of strategic locations, monitor enemy activities, and assess potential threats."

The paper also highlights that a breakdown in satellite-based systems could severely affect healthcare, leaving medical devices and critical technologies offline.

The underlying danger of reaching what Kessler identified as 'critical mass' is that it becomes nearly impossible to send new missions into space.

The environment would be too hazardous, with high-speed debris circling the planet and posing extreme risks to spacecraft.

Life on Earth would change dramatically if the Kessler syndrome comes true Getty Stock Image

How to stop the Kessler syndrome

Mariappan and Crassidis argue that recycling space debris offers a sustainable and long-term solution to mitigating the dangers of orbital congestion. Transforming waste into materials that can support new missions could help address the issue effectively.

Other short-term strategies include de-orbiting space debris and allowing it to burn up in Earth's atmosphere. However, while this method removes immediate threats, it poses environmental risks, such as potential damage to the ozone layer.

"By repurposing decommissioned satellites and debris into useful materials to support other space missions, this recycling strategy presents a win-win scenario, promoting environmental sustainability and resource efficiency in space exploration," Mariappan and Crassidis note.

The European Space Agency has pledged to become 'debris-neutral' by 2030. This means adding no net debris to Earth's orbit while aiming to reuse satellite parts by 2050. These initiatives highlight the global effort to address the issue.

As humanity continues to grapple with the dangers of the Kessler Syndrome, it remains uncertain whether these measures will be enough to prevent a crisis. Only time will tell if these efforts can protect our access to space and preserve the technology we rely on daily.